Remapping of Flight Leg Bookings

ABSTRACT

The system determines even-spaced quantiles for network optimization. The system may utilize authorization level to expected network conversion. The system may be used in connection with yield management systems, inventory control systems, or revenue management systems.

CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application is a continuation of, claims priority to and thebenefit of, U.S. Ser. No. 15/823,888 filed on Nov. 28, 2017. The '888application is a continuation of U.S. Ser. No. 15/041,669 filed on Feb.11, 2016. The '669 application is a divisional of, claims priority toand benefit of U.S. Ser. No. 14/157,960 filed on Jan. 17, 2014. The '960application is a continuation of, claims priority to and the benefit of,U.S. Ser. No. 14/157,869 filed on Jan. 17, 2014. The contents of each ofthe foregoing applications are incorporated herein by reference in theirentirety for all purposes.

TECHNICAL FIELD

The present disclosure generally relates to forecasting andoptimization, and more particularly, to analysis methods and toolssuitable for use in connection with yield management systems, inventorycontrol systems, revenue management systems, and/or the like.

BACKGROUND

Transportation services industries, and particularly the airlineindustry, are often associated with high costs and varying degrees ofprofitability. As a result, airlines often seek new sources of income(e.g., a la carte pricing for additional services) and innovative waysto increase revenues and/or reduce costs (e.g., optimizing existingprocesses).

Moreover, many airlines and other transportation networks are organizedaround a traditional “hub and spoke” model. In such systems, multiplepaths exist between a given location pair (e.g., an origin and anultimate destination, for example, LAX airport and JFK airport connectedvia PHX airport). Accordingly, improved network assessment and/oroptimization systems and methods remain desirable. For example, systemsand methods capable of assessing the value of passengers on variousnetwork paths and segments. Stated another way, it remains desirable tobe able to account for, model, and/or otherwise assess the differingvalue of a passenger booking, dependent at least in part on route.

SUMMARY

In an exemplary embodiment, a method for airline network optimizationcomprises determining, by a processor for airline network optimizationand based on a set of class authorization level (AU) values, a set ofexpected network revenue (ENR) values. The set of class AU values weregenerated by a forecasting system. The method further comprisesdetermining, by the processor and based on the set of ENR values, a setof revised class AU values, and remapping, by the processor and based onthe network value of each flight leg in a set of flight leg bookings,the set of flight leg bookings to form a set of remapped flight legbookings. The set of flight leg bookings are generated based on the setof revised class AU values.

In another exemplary embodiment, a non-transitory computer-readablestorage medium has computer-executable instructions stored thereon that,in response to execution by a processor for airline networkoptimization, cause the processor to perform operations comprising:determining, by a processor for airline network optimization and basedon a set of class authorization level (AU) values, a set of expectednetwork revenue (ENR) values; determining, by the processor and based onthe set of ENR values, a set of revised class AU values; and remapping,by the processor and based on the network value of each flight leg in aset of flight leg bookings, the set of flight leg bookings to form a setof remapped flight leg bookings. The set of class AU values weregenerated by a forecasting system, and the set of flight leg bookingsare generated based on the set of revised class AU values.

In another exemplary embodiment, a method for authorization level (AU)to expected network revenue (ENR) conversion comprises: determining, bya processor for converting class AU values and based on a set of classAU values and for each fare class in an airline flight, the number ofseat protects to fit to a bid-price curve; determining, by the processorand for each fare class, even-spaced quantiles based upon the number ofseat protects to fit in that fare class; and generating, by theprocessor and using a distribution table, a set of ENR values based onthe quantile for each seat.

The contents of this summary section are provided only as a simplifiedintroduction to the disclosure, and are not intended to be used to limitthe scope of the appended claims.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

With reference to the following description, appended claims, andaccompanying drawings:

FIG. 1A is a block diagram illustrating exemplary network optimizationsystem components in accordance with various embodiments;

FIG. 1B illustrates data flow in an exemplary network optimizationsystem in accordance with various embodiments;

FIG. 2A illustrates a conventional EMSR-like (i.e., probabilitymultiplied by an average fare) approach to generate expected networkrevenue (ENR) values, illustrating how the conventional method issub-optimal by only generating values “to the right” of (i.e., equal toor lower than) an actual average fare;

FIG. 2B illustrates exemplary kernel density estimation in connectionwith generation of ENR values in accordance with various embodiments;

FIG. 3A illustrates kernel density estimation of ENR for an exemplaryflight in accordance with various embodiments;

FIG. 3B illustrates a bid-price curve generated by an exemplaryauthorization level (AU) to ENR module in accordance with variousembodiments;

FIGS. 3C through 3F illustrate seat protect allocation and booking in anactive class in accordance with various embodiments;

FIGS. 3G through 3L illustrate seat protect allocation, booking, andquantile redistribution in a non-active class in accordance with variousembodiments;

FIG. 4A illustrates an exemplary method for AU to ENR conversion inaccordance with various embodiments;

FIG. 4B illustrates an exemplary method for AU to ENR conversion inaccordance with various embodiments;

FIG. 4C illustrates an exemplary method for AU to ENR conversion inaccordance with various embodiments;

FIG. 5A illustrates demand class remapping for a booking in an exemplaryflight in accordance with various embodiments; and

FIG. 5B illustrates a method for demand class remapping in accordancewith various embodiments.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

Principles of the present disclosure can reshape the way organizationsforecast, calculate, optimize, and/or implement decisions, such asrevenue management and/or cost reduction strategies. For example,principles of the present disclosure enable airlines to assess demandfrom a flight leg perspective, while assessing passenger value from anetwork perspective. Stated another way, principles of the presentdisclosure recognize that flight class availability at the leg leveldoes not necessarily correspond to overall availability at the networklevel. In general, principles of the present disclosure allow forincreased accuracy in network optimization, forecasting, revenuemanagement, and/or the like, at least in part by virtue of utilizing amonetary value rather than a class identifier in connection with variousassessments.

While the present disclosure discusses “airlines” and “flights” forpurposes of convenience and illustration, one of skill in the art willappreciate that the network optimization methods, systems, and toolsdisclosed herein are broadly applicable, for example to anytransportation industry, such as buses, cruise ships, passenger trains,and the like.

Various embodiments of principles of the present disclosure employforecasting, statistical analysis and/or optimization techniques. Formore information regarding such techniques refer to, for example: “TheTheory and Practice of Revenue Management” (International Series inOperations Research & Management Science) by Kalyan T. Talluri andGarrett J. van Ryzin; “Using Multivariate Statistics (5th Edition)” byBarbara G. Tabachnick and Linda S. Fidell; and “Introduction toOperations Research” by Friedrich S. Hiller and Gerald J. Lieberman,McGraw-Hill 7th edition, Mar. 22, 2002; the contents of which are eachhereby incorporated by reference in their entireties.

In various embodiments, exemplary network optimization systems include auser interface (“UI”), software modules, logic engines, variousdatabases, interfaces to systems and tools, and/or computer networks.While exemplary network optimization systems may contemplate upgrades orreconfigurations of existing processing systems, changes to existingdatabases and system tools are not necessarily required by principles ofthe present disclosure.

The benefits provided by principles of the present disclosure include,for example, increased revenue, increased forecasting accuracy, lowercosts, increased seat utilization, increased customer good will,increased planning and operational efficiency, and increased employeemorale. For example, a revenue management organization benefits fromimproved forecasting accuracy and resulting increased revenue. Customersbenefit from booking availability that more closely tracks theirwillingness to pay, increasing the likelihood of a suitable seat andassociated fare being available for them.

As used herein: a “fare class” or “class” refers to a group of airlineseats that are priced similarly to one another.

An “entity” may include any individual, software program, business,organization, government entity, web site, system, hardware, and/or anyother entity.

A “local passenger” or “local booking” is a passenger/booking whoseorigination point and final destination are covered by a single flightleg. For example, a passenger boarding at LAX (Los Angeles), flyingnonstop on a flight from LAX to PHX (Phoenix), and deplaning in PHX is alocal passenger for the LAX→PHX flight leg.

A “flow passenger” or “flow booking” is, with respect to a particularflight leg, a passenger/booking whose origination point and finaldestination are covered via multiple flight legs. For example, apassenger boarding at SFO (San Francisco), flying from SFO to PHX, andthen flying from PHX to MCO (Orlando), is a flow passenger for each ofthe SFO→PHX flight leg and the PHX→MCO flight leg.

A “user” may include any entity that interacts with a system and/orparticipates in a process.

Turning now to FIG. 1A, in accordance with various embodiments, a user105 may perform tasks such as requesting, retrieving, receiving,updating, analyzing and/or modifying data. User 105 may also performtask such as initiating, manipulating, interacting with or using asoftware application, tool, module or hardware, and initiating,receiving or sending a communication. User 105 may interface withInternet server 125 via any communication protocol, device or methoddiscussed herein, known in the art, or later developed. User 105 may be,for example, a member of a revenue management organization, a member ofan operations research and systems analysis organization, a downstreamsystem, an upstream system, a third-party system, a systemadministrator, and/or the like.

In various embodiments, a user 105 may interface with a networkoptimization system 115 by way of a client 110. Network optimizationsystem 115 may be a partially or fully integrated system comprised ofvarious subsystems, modules and databases. Client 110 comprises anyhardware and/or software suitably configured to facilitate entering,accessing, requesting, retrieving, updating, analyzing and/or modifyingdata. The data may include operational data (e.g., schedules, resources,routes, operational alerts, weather, etc.), passenger data, cost data,forecasts, historical data, verification data, asset (e.g., airplane)data, inventory (e.g., airplane seat) data, legal/regulatory data,authentication data, demographic data, transaction data, or any othersuitable information discussed herein.

Client 110 includes any device (e.g., a computer), which communicates,in any manner discussed herein, with network optimization system 115 viaany network or protocol discussed herein. Browser applications compriseInternet browsing software installed within a computing unit or systemto conduct online communications and transactions. These computing unitsor systems may take the form of personal computers, mobile phones,personal digital assistants, mobile email devices, laptops, notebooks,hand-held computers, portable computers, kiosks, and/or the like.Practitioners will appreciate that client 110 may or may not be indirect contact with network optimization system 115. For example, client110 may access the services of network optimization system 115 throughanother server, which may have a direct or indirect connection toInternet server 125. Practitioners will further recognize that client110 may present interfaces associated with a software application (e.g.,SAS analytic software) or module that are provided to client 110 viaapplication GUIs or other interfaces and are not necessarily associatedwith or dependent upon internet browsers or internet specific protocols.

User 105 may communicate with network optimization system 115 through afirewall 120, for example to help ensure the integrity of networkoptimization system 115 components. Internet server 125 may include anyhardware and/or software suitably configured to facilitatecommunications between the client 110 and one or more networkoptimization system 115 components.

Firewall 120, as used herein, may comprise any hardware and/or softwaresuitably configured to protect network optimization system 115components from users of other networks. Firewall 120 may reside invarying configurations including stateful inspection, proxy based andpacket filtering, among others. Firewall 120 may be integrated assoftware within Internet server 125, any other network optimizationsystem 115 component, or may reside within another computing device ormay take the form of a standalone hardware component.

Authentication server 130 may include any hardware and/or softwaresuitably configured to receive authentication credentials, encrypt anddecrypt credentials, authenticate credentials, and/or grant accessrights according to pre-defined privileges associated with thecredentials. Authentication server 130 may grant varying degrees ofapplication and/or data level access to users based on informationstored within authentication database 135 and user database 140.Application server 142 may include any hardware and/or software suitablyconfigured to serve applications and data to a connected client 110.

In accordance with various embodiments, network optimization system 115is usable to increase and/or maximize revenue, manage inventorystrategy, generate inputs to other forecasting systems, and/or the like.Continuing to reference FIG. 1A, network optimization system 115 allowscommunication with central data repository (CDR) 150, and with variousother databases, tools, UIs and systems (not shown in FIG. 1A). Suchsystems include, for example, airline scheduling systems, passengerbooking and reservations systems, revenue management systems, inventorysystems, and/or the like.

Network optimization system 115 components are interconnected andcommunicate with one another to allow for a completely integratedoptimization system. In various embodiments, network optimization system115 separates prior relationships between pricing and inventorystratification tables; network optimization system 115 may instead remapbookings to a flight leg individually (including the respective value ofa particular flight leg net of all other displacements in the network).Airline reservations systems may sell inventory based at least in partupon the output of network optimization system 115.

In various embodiments, network optimization system 115 modules (e.g.,AU to ENR module 145, demand class remapping module 147, and othernetwork optimization system 115 modules not shown in FIG. 1A) aresoftware modules configured to enable online functions such as sendingand receiving messages, receiving query requests, configuring responses,dynamically configuring user interfaces, requesting data, receivingdata, displaying data, executing complex processes, calculations,forecasts, mathematical techniques, workflows and/or algorithms,prompting user 105, verifying user responses, authenticating the user,initiating network optimization system 115 processes, initiating othersoftware modules, triggering downstream systems and processes,encrypting and decrypting, and/or the like. Additionally, networkoptimization system 115 modules may include any hardware and/or softwaresuitably configured to receive requests from client 110 via Internetserver 125 and application server 142.

Network optimization system 115 modules may be further configured toprocess requests, execute transactions, construct database queries,and/or execute queries against databases within network optimizationsystem 115 (e.g., central data repository (“CDR”) 150), external datasources and/or temporary databases. In various embodiments, one or morenetwork optimization system 115 modules may be configured to executeapplication programming interfaces in order to communicate with avariety of messaging platforms, such as email systems, wirelesscommunications systems, mobile communications systems, multimediamessaging service (“MMS”) systems, short messaging service (“SMS”)systems, and the like.

Network optimization system 115 modules may be configured to exchangedata with other systems and application modules, for example an airlinereservation system. In various embodiments, network optimization system115 modules may be configured to interact with other networkoptimization system 115 components to perform complex calculations,retrieve additional data, format data into reports, create XMLrepresentations of data, construct markup language documents, construct,define or control UIs, and/or the like. Moreover, network optimizationsystem 115 modules may reside as standalone systems or tools, or may beincorporated with the application server 142 or any other networkoptimization system 115 component as program code. As one of ordinaryskill in the art will appreciate, network optimization system 115modules may be logically or physically divided into varioussubcomponents, such as a workflow engine configured to evaluatepredefined rules and to automate processes.

In addition to the components described above, network optimizationsystem 115 may further include one or more of the following: a hostserver or other computing systems including a processor for processingdigital data; a memory coupled to the processor for storing digitaldata; an input digitizer coupled to the processor for inputting digitaldata; an application program stored in the memory and accessible by theprocessor for directing processing of digital data by the processor; adisplay device coupled to the processor and memory for displayinginformation derived from digital data processed by the processor; aplurality of databases, and/or the like.

As will be appreciated by one of ordinary skill in the art, one or morenetwork optimization system 115 components may be embodied as acustomization of an existing system, an add-on product, upgradedsoftware, a stand-alone system (e.g., kiosk), a distributed system, amethod, a data processing system, a device for data processing, and/or acomputer program product. Accordingly, individual network optimizationsystem 115 components may take the form of an entirely softwareembodiment, an entirely hardware embodiment, or an embodiment combiningaspects of both software and hardware. Furthermore, individual networkoptimization system 115 components may take the form of a computerprogram product on a non-transitory computer-readable storage mediumhaving computer-readable program code means embodied in the storagemedium. Any suitable computer-readable storage medium may be utilized,including magnetic storage devices (e.g., hard disks), optical storagedevices, (e.g., DVD-ROM, CD-ROM, etc.), electronic storage devices(e.g., flash memory), and/or the like.

Client 110 may include an operating system (e.g., Windows, UNIX, Linux,Solaris, MacOS, iOS, Windows Mobile OS, Windows CE, Palm OS, Symbian OS,Blackberry OS, J2ME, etc.) as well as various conventional supportsoftware and drivers typically associated with mobile devices and/orcomputers. Client 110 may be in any environment with access to anynetwork, including both wireless and wired network connections. Invarious embodiments, access is through a network or the Internet througha commercially available web-browser software package. Client 110 andnetwork optimization system 115 components may be independently,separately or collectively suitably coupled to the network via datalinks which include, for example, a connection to an Internet ServiceProvider (ISP) over the local loop as is typically used in connectionwith standard wireless communications networks and/or methods, such asmodem communication, cable modem, satellite networks, ISDN, digitalsubscriber line (DSL), and/or the like. In various embodiments, anyportion of client 110 may be partially or fully connected to a networkusing a wired (“hard wire”) connection. As those skilled in the art willappreciate, client 110 and/or any of the system components may includewired and/or wireless portions.

Internet server 125 may be configured to transmit data to client 110,for example within markup language documents. “Data” may includeencompassing information such as commands, messages, transactionrequests, queries, files, data for storage, and/or the like in digitalor any other form. Internet server 125 may operate as a single entity ina single geographic location or as separate computing components locatedtogether or in separate geographic locations. Further, Internet server125 may provide a suitable web site or other Internet-based graphicaluser interface, which is accessible by users (such as user 105). Invarious embodiments, Microsoft Internet Information Server (IIS),Microsoft Transaction Server (MTS), and Microsoft SQL Server, are usedin conjunction with a Microsoft operating system, Microsoft NT webserver software, a Microsoft SQL Server database system, and a MicrosoftCommerce Server. In various embodiments, the well-known “LAMP” stack(Linux, Apache, MySQL, and PHP/Perl/Python) are used to enable networkoptimization system 115. Additionally, components such as Access orMicrosoft SQL Server, Oracle, Sybase, InterBase, etc., may be used toprovide an Active Data Object (ADO) compliant database managementsystem.

Like Internet server 125, application server 142 may communicate withany number of other servers, databases and/or components through anymeans known in the art. Further, application server 142 may serve as aconduit between client 110 and the various systems and components ofnetwork optimization system 115. Internet server 125 may interface withapplication server 142 through any means known in the art including aLAN/WAN, for example. Application server 142 may further invoke softwaremodules, such as AU to ENR module 145, demand class remapping module147, and/or the like, automatically or in response to user 105 requests.

Any of the communications, inputs, storage, databases or displaysdiscussed herein may be facilitated through a web site having web pages.The term “web page” as it is used herein is not meant to limit the typeof documents and applications that may be used to interact with theuser. For example, a typical web site may include, in addition tostandard HTML documents, various forms, Java applets, JavaScript, activeserver pages (ASP), common gateway interface scripts (CGI), Flash filesor modules, FLEX, ActionScript, extensible markup language (XML),dynamic HTML, cascading style sheets (CSS), helper applications,plug-ins, and/or the like. A server may include a web service thatreceives a request from a web server, the request including a URL (e.g.,http://yahoo.com) and/or an internet protocol (“IP”) address. The webserver retrieves the appropriate web pages and sends the data orapplications for the web pages to the IP address. Web services areapplications that are capable of interacting with other applicationsover a communications means, such as the Internet. Web services aretypically based on standards or protocols such as XML, SOAP, WSDL andUDDI. Web services methods are well known in the art, and are covered inmany standard texts. See, e.g., Alex Nghiem, IT Web Services: A Roadmapfor the Enterprise (2003).

Continuing to reference FIG. 1A, illustrated are databases that areincluded in various embodiments. An exemplary list of various databasesused herein includes: an authentication database 135, a user database140, CDR 150 and/or other databases that aid in the functioning of thesystem. As practitioners will appreciate, while depicted as separateand/or independent entities for the purposes of illustration, databasesresiding within network optimization system 115 may represent multiplehardware, software, database, data structure and networking components.Furthermore, embodiments are not limited to the databases describedherein, nor do embodiments necessarily utilize each of the discloseddatabases.

Authentication database 135 may store information used in theauthentication process such as, for example, user identifiers,passwords, access privileges, user preferences, user statistics, and thelike. User database 140 maintains user information and credentials fornetwork optimization system 115 users (e.g., user 105).

In various embodiments, CDR 150 is a data repository that may beconfigured to store a wide variety of comprehensive data for networkoptimization system 115. While depicted as a single logical entity inFIG. 1A, those of skill in the art will appreciate that CDR 150 may, invarious embodiments, consist of multiple physical and/or logical datasources. In various embodiments, CDR 150 stores operational data,schedules, resource data, asset data, inventory data, personnelinformation, routes and route plans, station (e.g., airports or otherterminals) data, operational alert data, weather information, passengerdata, reservation data, cost data, optimization results, booking classdata, forecasts, historical data, verification data, authenticationdata, demographic data, legal data, regulatory data, transaction data,security profiles, access rules, content analysis rules, audit records,predefined rules, process definitions, financial data, and the like. Forexample, in various exemplary embodiments a data source or componentdatabase of CDR 150 includes information such as unconstrained cabindemand forecasts, unconstrained class-level demand forecasts, cabinachievable demand, cabin current booked count, cabin seat availability,class-level average fare, sell-up percentage, seat respective networkrevenue, seat respective displacement value, network-revenue ratio,market-value table entry, filed fare by class-code information, and/orthe like.

Any databases discussed herein may include relational, hierarchical,graphical, or object-oriented structure and/or any other databaseconfigurations. Common database products that may be used to implementthe databases include DB2 by IBM (Armonk, N.Y.), various databaseproducts available from Oracle Corporation (Redwood Shores, Calif.),Microsoft Access or Microsoft SQL Server by Microsoft Corporation(Redmond, Wash.), MySQL by MySQL AB (Uppsala, Sweden), or any othersuitable database product. Moreover, the databases may be organized inany suitable manner, for example, as data tables or lookup tables. Eachrecord may be a single file, a series of files, a linked series of datafields or any other data structure. Association of certain data may beaccomplished through any desired data association technique such asthose known or practiced in the art. For example, the association may beaccomplished either manually or automatically. Automatic associationtechniques may include, for example, a database search, a databasemerge, GREP, AGREP, SQL, using a key field in the tables to speedsearches, sequential searches through all the tables and files, sortingrecords in the file according to a known order to simplify lookup,and/or the like. The association step may be accomplished by a databasemerge function, for example, using a “key field” in pre-selecteddatabases or data sectors. Various database tuning steps arecontemplated to optimize database performance. For example, frequentlyused files such as indexes may be placed on separate file systems toreduce In/Out (“I/O”) bottlenecks.

One skilled in the art will also appreciate that, for security reasons,any databases, systems, devices, servers or other components of networkoptimization system 115 may consist of any combination thereof at asingle location or at multiple locations, wherein each database orsystem includes any of various suitable security features, such asfirewalls, access codes, encryption, decryption, compression,decompression, and/or the like.

The systems and methods may be described herein in terms of functionalblock components, screen shots, optional selections and variousprocessing steps. It should be appreciated that such functional blocksmay be realized by any number of hardware and/or software componentsconfigured to perform the specified functions. For example, the systemmay employ various integrated circuit components, e.g., memory elements,processing elements, logic elements, look-up tables, and the like, whichmay carry out a variety of functions under the control of one or moremicroprocessors or other control devices. Similarly, the softwareelements of the system may be implemented with any programming orscripting language such as C, C++, C #, Java, JavaScript, Flash,ActionScript, FLEX, VBScript, Macromedia Cold Fusion, COBOL, MicrosoftActive Server Pages, assembly, PERL, SAS, PHP, awk, Python, VisualBasic, SQL Stored Procedures, PL/SQL, any UNIX shell script, and/orextensible markup language (XML) or the like, with the variousalgorithms being implemented with any combination of data structures,objects, processes, routines or other programming elements. Further, itshould be noted that the system may employ any number of conventionaltechniques for data transmission, signaling, data processing, networkcontrol, and the like. Still further, the system may be used to detector prevent security issues with a client-side scripting language, suchas JavaScript, VBScript or the like.

Software elements may be loaded onto a general purpose computer, specialpurpose computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus toproduce a machine, such that the instructions that execute on thecomputer or other programmable data processing means for implementingthe functions specified in the flowchart block or blocks. These computerprogram instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memorythat can direct a computer or other programmable data processingapparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructionsstored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufactureincluding instruction means which implement the function specifiedherein or in flowchart block or blocks. The computer programinstructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmabledata processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to beperformed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce acomputer-implemented process such that the instructions which execute onthe computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps forimplementing the functions specified in the flowchart block or blocks.

Accordingly, functional blocks of the block diagrams and flowchartillustrations support combinations of means for performing the specifiedfunctions, combinations of steps for performing the specified functions,and program instruction means for performing the specified functions. Itwill also be understood that each functional block of the block diagramsand flowchart illustrations, and combinations of functional blocks inthe block diagrams and flowchart illustrations, can be implemented byeither special purpose hardware-based computer systems which perform thespecified functions or steps, or suitable combinations of specialpurpose hardware and computer instructions. Further, illustrations ofthe process flows and the descriptions thereof may make reference touser windows, web pages, web sites, web forms, prompts, etc.Practitioners will appreciate that the illustrated steps describedherein may comprise any number of configurations including the use ofwindows, web pages, web forms, popup windows, prompts and/or the like.It should be further appreciated that the multiple steps as illustratedand described may be combined into single web pages and/or windows buthave been expanded for the sake of simplicity. In other cases, stepsillustrated and described as single process steps may be separated intomultiple web pages and/or windows but have been combined for simplicity.

With continued reference to FIG. 1A, in various embodiments, user 105logs onto an application (e.g., a module) and Internet server 125 mayinvoke an application server 142. Application server 142 invokes logicin the network optimization system 115 modules by passing parametersrelating to user's 105 requests for data. Network optimization system115 manages requests for data from network optimization system 115modules and/or communicates with other system components. Transmissionsbetween user 105 and Internet server 125 may pass through a firewall 120to help ensure the integrity of network optimization system 115components. Practitioners will appreciate that exemplary embodiments mayincorporate any number of security schemes or none at all. In variousembodiments, Internet server 125 receives requests from client 110 andinteracts with various other network optimization system 115 componentsto perform tasks related to requests from client 110.

Internet server 125 may invoke an authentication server 130 to verifythe identity of user 105 and assign roles, access rights and/orpermissions to user 105. In order to control access to the applicationserver 142 or any other component of network optimization system 115,Internet server 125 may invoke an authentication server 130 in responseto user 105 submissions of authentication credentials received atInternet server 125. In response to a request to access networkoptimization system 115 being received at Internet server 125, Internetserver 125 determines if authentication is required and transmits aprompt to client 110. User 105 enters authentication data at client 110,which transmits the authentication data to Internet server 125. Internetserver 125 passes the authentication data to authentication server 130which queries the user database 140 for corresponding credentials. Inresponse to user 105 being authenticated, user 105 may access variousapplications and their corresponding data sources.

With reference now to FIGS. 1A and 1B, various prior approaches toairline demand forecasting have suffered from various shortcomings, forexample inaccuracies arising from using revenue booking designators(fare classes) for forecasting.

In contrast, principles of the present disclosure contemplate approachesto airline demand forecasting, wherein demand may be viewed from a legperspective, while passengers are valued from a network perspective.Moreover, principles of the present disclosure contemplate use of dollarvalues, rather than strictly class values, in connection with demandforecasting. This approach recognizes that, for purposes of forecasting,a network-level class for a flow passenger may differ from the leg-levelclass of that flow passenger.

Utilizing principles of the present disclosure, for example according tonetwork optimization systems and methods as disclosed herein, allows anorganization (for example, an airline) to obtain a more granularvaluation of each resource in the network. Stated another way,principles of the present disclosure provide insight into theopportunity cost of each next seat booking. It will be appreciated thatthis approach thus corrects, from a network perspective, for potentialunder-valuation and/or over-valuation of certain flight legs in aparticular passenger itinerary.

Systems and methods as disclosed herein provide improved networkperformance for at least two reasons: (i) they correct for flawedmaterial assumptions in prior models (for example EMSR-A, EMSR-B, and soforth) that cause such prior models to undervalue the opportunity costassociated with a particular seat booking; and (ii) they improve demandforecasting by providing a leg-value-based forecast (resulting in lowererror) and by separating forecasting from the pricing revenue bookingdesignator.

In this manner, a particular passenger booking may be assessed in termsof value per flight leg; the value per flight leg may thereafter betranslated back into a cluster of values, for example in order toprovide input for forecasting systems. Moreover, network optimizationsystem 115 and associated methods allows an organization, for example anairline, to more accurately determine the incremental revenue associatedwith a particular passenger booking—not just the net revenue for thatbooking.

With reference now to FIG. 1B, in various exemplary embodiments a method190 of operation of a network optimization system 115 may be visualizedat a high level as follows: a forecasting system (for example, PROSoffered by PROS Holdings, Inc., or similar) generates classauthorization levels (AUs) (step 191) and provides them to AU to ENRmodule 145. AU to ENR module 145 generates expected network revenue(ENR) and displacement (DC) curves (step 192), and passes them, togetherwith adjustment factors and/or notification parameters, to a reservationsystem (for example, SHARES offered by EDS Corporation). SHARESadvertises seats for sale based on the input and takes bookings forseats (step 193), and passes the booking information to demand classremapping module 147. Demand class remapping module 147 generatesremapped leg bookings to reflect adjusted values of such bookings from anetwork perspective (step 194) and passes the remapped bookings to aforecasting system (e.g., PROS). The cycle of method 190 repeats, asdesired.

With reference now to FIG. 2A, various prior forecasting approaches, forexample EMSR-B, suffer from known imperfections, inaccuracies, and/orerrors. For example, using EMSR-B to generate ENR values is known togenerate ENR values that fall only “to the right” (i.e., less than) anactual average fare curve (illustrated as curve 201 in FIG. 2A); asillustrated in FIG. 2A, EMSR-B output for class B is always less thanthe actual average fare curve 201 in that class.

In contrast, principles of the present disclosure contemplate updatedmethodologies and systems that more accurately values the possible ENRswithin a distribution. Network optimization system 115 provides a fitfor the distribution curve for network revenue values for a class.Network optimization system 115 may also allocate “seat protects” alongthe distribution curve according to their adjusted probabilities ofselling. Stated another way, via AU to ENR module 145, historic trafficmay be converted to a fare class distribution and thereafter to a kerneldensity estimation. Via kernel density estimation, a quantile may bemapped to a particular network-revenue equivalent dollar value. Invarious exemplary embodiments, points (i.e., seat protects) may bespread evenly across the kernel density estimator, starting at the0^(th) percentile. It will be appreciated that the spread (the number ofpoints) thus determines the actual quantile, and the quantile may thenbe mapped to an ENR using a kernel density function.

With reference now to FIG. 2B, in various exemplary embodiments AU toENR module 145 is configured to account for, model, and/or utilizehistorical bookings information in order to determine a set of quantilesin a particular class. For example, in FIG. 2B historical informationfor an exemplary fare class, Class A, on an exemplary flight isillustrated. Class A spans fares ranging from $452 to $548, with anaverage fare of $508. However, it can be seen that historically, faressold in class A are not equally distributed across the class; rather,more bookings have been taken around certain price points (e.g., $484and $532, for example), as opposed to other price points (e.g., $452 and$508, for example). Stated another way, fares in class A do not have anequal probability of selling. Accordingly, AU to ENR module 145 isconfigured to allocate price points for seat protects for a particularclass, not by distributing evenly across the class by price point, butby distributing evenly across the class by probability of selling (i.e.,by dividing the area under curve 201 into quantiles, for example asillustrated in FIG. 3A).

In various embodiments, AU to ENR module 145 is configured to modify,adjust, and/or convert data from a first set of values into a second setof values. In certain exemplary embodiments, AU to ENR module 145 isconfigured to receive input from a forecasting system (for example,PROS) in the form of authorization levels (AUs), availability, demand,bookings, and/or the like. AU to ENR module 145 converts the AUs intoappropriate expected network revenue (ENR) values. Stated generally, AUto ENR module 145 is configured to provide an answer to the question:“What is the net value to the network of a particular booking on aparticular flight leg?”

AU to ENR module 145 may be operable on-demand, on a schedule, on a“triggered” basis (for example, each time a trigger event occurs, suchas a booking or series of bookings), and/or continuously, as desired, inorder to generate ENR values. In various exemplary embodiments, AU toENR module 145 operates (for example, as illustrated in FIG. 4A inmethod 470) each time an updated forecast/optimization is desired. Insome exemplary embodiments, AU to ENR module 145 operates (for example,as illustrated in FIG. 4B in method 480) on a weekly basis, for example,in order to update and/or refresh fare distribution in an airlinenetwork system. AU to ENR module 145 and/or methods 470, 480, and/or 490may be utilized on any suitable time schedule, as desired.

AU to ENR module 145 may utilize historical data regarding seat bookingsfor a prior period of time, for example about the prior 12 weeks toabout the prior 52 weeks of booking information. Moreover, any suitableamount of historical data may be utilized. AU to ENR module 145 may alsoutilize information such as traffic volume at the leg level, seatprotects and demand at the class level, and/or the like. AU to ENRmodule 145 may provide ENR values for all classes in a flight leg;alternatively, AU to ENR module 145 may not provide ENR values forcertain classes (for example, first class, Y-class, and/or the like).

In various exemplary embodiments, AU to ENR module 145 generates ENRvalues responsive to inputs comprising AU levels for a flight leg. Incertain exemplary embodiments, AU to ENR module 145 utilizes an inputprocess (i.e., finding a distribution of network revenue), an estimationprocess (i.e., kernel density estimation of network revenue), and aconversion process (i.e., converting AUs/seat protects to expectednetwork revenue). As mentioned previously, AU to ENR module 145 isconfigured to fit a distribution curve for network revenue values for aclass, and thereafter allocate seat protects along the curve accordingto their adjusted probabilities of selling.

An exemplary bid-price curve generated by AU to ENR module 145 isillustrated in FIG. 3B. An exemplary partial table of output valuesgenerated by AU to ENR module 145 is shown below as Table 1.

TABLE 1 Directional Seat No. Market Flight No. Flight Date Class ENR ($)1 PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 Q 495 2 PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 Q 455 3PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 N 442 4 PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 N 429 5PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 N 413 6 PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 N 403 7PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 N 389 8 PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 N 378 9PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 N 365 10 PHX→DTW 231 Jul. 27, 2014 V 355 . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . * Seat No.: number of seats remaining

In AU to ENR module 145, seat protects in a class may be allocatedevenly by quantile, starting at the 0^(th) percentile. Thus, forexample, when allocating 2 seat protects in a class, AU to ENR module145 may allocate the first seat protect at the 0^(th) percentile, andthe second seat protect at the 50^(th) percentile. Similarly, whenallocating 3 seat protects in a class, AU to ENR module 145 may allocatethe first seat protect at the 0^(th) percentile, the second seat protectat about the 33^(rd) percentile, and the third seat protect at about the67^(th) percentile. As discussed herein, the quantile may correspondwith area under a curve, rather than with dollar values. For example, asillustrated in FIG. 3A, it will be understood that a first quantile (forexample, from 0-33.3%) may be narrower than, equal to, or wider than acorresponding range of dollar values, depending on the correspondinghistorical fare distribution. A second quantile (i.e., from 33.3% to66.6%) and a third quantile (i.e., from 66.6% to 100%) may similarlyvary. Stated another way, it will be appreciated that the distributionof fares sold in a class will typically not be evenly distributed byprice across the class.

With reference now to FIG. 4A, in various exemplary embodiments a method470 for AU to ENR conversion comprises obtaining an input data set (step474), for example a demand forecast from PROS. For each forecast class,AU to ENR module 145 merges the fare distribution (step 475); in thelowest open (“active”) class, values are seat protects (step 476) and ineach non-active class, values are seat protects less actual bookings(step 477). The values from all classes are combined to create abid-price curve (step 478), for example as illustrated in FIG. 3B. Theresults are uploaded to a reservation system (step 479).

Turning now to FIGS. 3C through 3F and FIG. 4A, in various exemplaryembodiments, in connection with operation of AU to ENR module 145, whena particular class is the active class, in step 476 bookings areremoved/allocated from the bottom up. Stated another way, in an exampleillustrated in FIGS. 3C through 3F, class Q is the active class and hasfive available seat protects, Q1 through Q5, evenly distributed byquantile (i.e., by adjusted probability of selling, not by dollar amountspacing) across the Q class range of ENR values (i.e., at the 0^(th),20^(th), 40^(th), 60^(th), and 80^(th) percentile). When a booking istaken in Q class, the lowest seat protect on the curve, seat protect Q1at the 0^(th) percentile, is marked as sold (FIG. 3D). When the nextbooking is taken in Q class, the lowest available remaining seatprotect, seat protect Q2 at the 20^(th) percentile, is marked as sold(FIG. 3E). Bookings continue to be taken in class Q until the lastavailable seat protect, seat protect Q5 at the 80^(th) percentile, ismarked as sold and class Q is closed for further bookings (FIG. 3F).

Turning now to FIGS. 3G through 3L and FIG. 4A, in various exemplaryembodiments, when a particular class is a non-active class, in step 477a booking in that class is taken, and the distribution of remaining seatprotects is thereafter re-calculated in order to evenly redistribute theremaining seat protects in the class by quantile. Stated another way, inan example illustrated in FIGS. 3G through 3L, class Q is a non-activeclass and has five available seat protects, Q1 through Q5, evenlydistributed by quantile across the Q class range of ENR values. When aparticular booking is taken in Q class, a seat protect is marked assold. The remaining 4 seat protects (now relabeled Q1 through Q4 forconvenience) are evenly reallocated across the Q class range of ENRvalues (i.e., now by quartiles as there are now 4 remaining seatprotects, rather than by quintiles as when there were 5 remaining seatprotects; stated another way, at the 0^(th) percentile, the 25^(th)percentile, the 50^(th) percentile, and the 75^(th) percentile) (FIG.3H). The process of allocating a seat protect and recalculating thedistribution continues as suitable, for example each time a booking istaken or when a forecast is processed (FIGS. 31 through 3L) until allseat protects in class Q are allocated and class Q is closed for furtherbookings.

When a booking is taken for a particular flight leg, AU to ENR module145 may re-execute method 470 in order to generate a new bid-price curvefor that flight leg.

With reference now to FIG. 4B, in various exemplary embodiments a method480 for AU to ENR conversion comprises obtaining historical bookinginformation (step 482). Any suitable amount of historical bookinginformation may be utilized, but in various exemplary embodiments,method 480 utilizes between about 12 weeks and about 52 weeks ofhistorical information. AU to ENR module 145 performs kernel estimation(step 483), for example via a non-parametric empirical distributionestimation. The level of detail of the estimation may vary, as desired;however, in certain exemplary embodiments, kernel estimation may beprovided based on the day of the week, by flight class, by directionalmarket (e.g., LAX→PHX is a directional market, PHX→LAX is a differentdirectional market, LAX 4 SFO is yet another directional market, etc),and/or in connection with any other suitable variables or levels ofgranularity. The kernel estimation is stored (step 484) and thereaftermerged with fare distribution information (step 485). AU to ENR module145 then generates ENR values; similar to method 470, in the activeclass, values are seat protects (step 486) and for each non-activeclass, values are seat protects less actual bookings (step 487). Thevalues from the active class and all non-active classes are combined tocreate a bid-price curve (step 488). The results are uploaded to areservation system (step 489).

In AU to ENR module 145, AUs and availability may be converted to ENRvalues. In an exemplary embodiment and with reference to FIG. 4C, inmethod 490 the active class (the lowest open class) on a flight may beflagged (step 491). For the active class, achievable demand may beutilized. For a non-active class, “pickup” may be utilized, whereinpickup is equal to unconstrained demand less unconstrained bookings.Additional details regarding unconstraining may be found in U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/791,672 entitled “Demand Forecasting Systems andMethods Utilizing Unobscuring and Unconstraining” filed on Mar. 8, 2013.The number of seat protects to fit to the curve (i.e., the number ofquantiles to use) are determined for each class (step 492). For theactive class, the number of quantiles to use is the achievable demand.For each non-active class, the number of quantiles to fit is the pickup.Quantiles are used to perform lookups in a distribution table andreference the corresponding ENR values (step 493).

In various exemplary embodiments, in AU to ENR module 145 or operationthereof, the final number of ENR values needed may differ from thenumber of quantiles used. In the active class, the number of ENR valuesequals the number of protects. For each non-active class, the number ofENR values may be the seats remaining within that class. ENR values maybe chosen starting from the highest quantile and moving down (forexample, with reference to FIG. 3D). In an exemplary embodiment, in theevent there are more ENR values needed than quantiles available, allremaining or excess ENR values may be considered to correspond to the0^(th) percentile; stated another way, in certain circumstances morethan one ENR value may be considered to correspond to the 0^(th)percentile.

Via use of AU to ENR module 145 and/or methods 470, 480, and/or 490, ENRvalues for passengers may be more accurately assessed. Consequently,improved network decisions may be made, for example seat pricing, fareclass allocation, class openings, class closings, and so forth.

In addition to utilizing AU to ENR module 145, network optimizationsystem 115 may be configured to utilize demand class remapping module147 (and/or method 500) to create, revise, and/or modify demandforecasts and/or to create values suitable for use in a forecast engine.Stated generally, demand class remapping module 147 is configured totranslate the value of a booking from the actual price paid by apassenger to a revised value for use in a forecast engine. In variousembodiments, demand class remapping module 147 is configured to generateremapped booking information that differs from actual observed bookings.In certain exemplary embodiments, demand class remapping module 147generates demand forecasts directly; in other exemplary embodiments,remapped booking information generated by demand class remapping module147 may be delivered to other electronic systems (for example, PROS) inlieu of actual observed booking information, in order to generateimproved demand forecasts.

Demand class remapping module 147 and/or method 500 may be utilized onany suitable time schedule, as desired. For example, demand classremapping module 147 may be operable on a weekly basis, on a dailybasis, on an hourly basis, on a “triggered” basis (for example, eachtime a trigger event occurs, such as a booking or series of bookings),after collection of data associated with a data collection point (DCP),and/or the like. In various embodiments, demand class remapping module147 is operable independent of (and often subsequent to) operation of AUto ENR module 145.

In various exemplary embodiments, demand class remapping module 147“unpacks” aggregated booking information provided to demand classremapping module 147 as an input (for example, from an airlinereservation system, such as SHARES). Demand class remapping module 147outputs a remapped booking table. The remapped booking table may beutilized as an input to another system, for example a willingness to pay(WTP) system as disclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/791,672entitled “Demand Forecasting Systems and Methods Utilizing Unobscuringand Unconstraining” filed on Mar. 8, 2013, U.S. patent application Ser.No. 13/791,691 entitled “Demand Forecasting Systems and MethodsUtilizing Fare Adjustment” filed on Mar. 8, 2013, and U.S. patentapplication Ser. No. 13/791,711 entitled “Demand Forecasting Systems andMethods Utilizing Prime Class Remapping” filed on Mar. 8, 2013. Theremapped booking table may also be utilized as an input to a PROSforecasting system offered by PROS Holdings, Inc. In various exemplaryembodiments, demand class remapping module 147 determines network valueper flight leg, and then translates the value per flight leg back intoclass information suitable for use in forecasting.

In demand class remapping module 147, a local passenger booking ismapped/remapped using a forecast stratification table as is known in theart. However, in demand class remapping module 147, a flow passengerbooking is mapped/remapped using a network-aware, displacement-adjustedvaluation. Stated another way, network optimization system 115 isconfigured to recognize that forecast stratification and pricingstratification are different; one deals with absolute dollars and theother deals with incremental revenue. Accordingly, demand classremapping module 147 utilizes displacement value information associatedwith each resource on a network (for example, each seat on an airlineflight leg) in order to remap actual bookings, for forecasting purposes,into classes more closely aligned with the actual ENR of such bookings.

To illustrate operation of demand class remapping module 147, consideran exemplary flow passenger booking from LAX→PHX→BOS (Boston) asillustrated in FIG. 5A. The flow passenger booking was taken in N-classat a total ticket price of $400. It will be appreciated that the seat oneach leg of the flow booking could otherwise be utilized by otherroutes/bookings if the present booking had not been made; accordingly,each leg of the flow booking has a displacement cost. For example, theseat on the LAX→PHX leg could have been sold to a passenger travellingfrom Seattle (SEA) to PHX via LAX. Similarly, the seat on the PHX→BOSleg could have been sold to a passenger travelling from Reno (RNO) toBOS via PHX, and so forth.

In various exemplary embodiments, demand class remapping module 147 mayutilize any suitable information, for example bid-price information foreach leg of a passenger itinerary, in order to obtain and/or calculatethe displacement cost for each leg. In the present example, it is knownthat the displacement cost of this passenger's seat on the LAX→PHX leg(i.e., the overall network value foregone by selling this seat to thisparticular passenger) is $210. Similarly, it is known that thedisplacement cost of this passenger's seat on the PHX→BOS leg is $150.

In various exemplary embodiments, for each flight leg, demand classremapping module 147 determines an appropriate adjusted value for theflight leg utilizing an equation of the form Leg_(n)value=(NR₁/(NR₁+NR₂))*HP+Pricing, where

NR₁=the displacement cost of the seat on a first leg;

NR₂=the displacement cost of the seat on a second leg;

HP=a hurdle point, i.e. the minimum acceptable amount needing to be paidfor a booking on the leg in order to cover the displacement cost;

Pricing=ODF−HP; and

ODF=the actual amount paid by a passenger for a booking.

Accordingly, for the illustrated example, the example passenger bookinghas a value of $250 on the LAX→PHX leg ($400−$150=$250; similarly, asshown by the equation above, Pricing=$400−$360=$40, and $210+$40=$250),and a value of $190 on the PHX→BOS leg ($400−$210=$190). Demand classremapping module 147 thus “remaps”, for forecasting purposes, thispassenger N-class booking to a class W booking (i.e., a booking having a$250 value) on the LAX→PHX leg and a class S booking (i.e., a bookinghaving $190 value) on the PHX→BOS leg. The remapped booking is providedto a forecasting system in order to generate a forecast. It will beappreciated that the class identifiers and prices utilized in thepresent disclosure are by way of convenience and example and not by wayof limitation; principles of the present disclosure may be utilized forany number of classes and any pricing divisions and/or structurestherein or therebetween.

In various exemplary embodiments, demand class remapping module 147stores remapping information for recall. In this manner, in the event aparticular booking is cancelled, an appropriate “unmapping” of theremapped booking can take place. In the given example, if the N-class(as booked in SHARES) example passenger booking is cancelled, a remaplookup table may be utilized; in this instance the remap lookup tablewould be utilized to remove a class W booking from the LAX→PHX leg and aclass S booking from the PHX→BOS leg. In this manner, the remappingprocess provided by demand class remapping module 147 is reversible,upon demand, in order to account for customer cancellations or otherchanges within or visible to network optimization system 115.

With reference now to FIG. 5B, in various exemplary embodiments, amethod 500 for demand class remapping comprises identifying localbookings (step 510). Flow bookings are identified (step 520). For eachleg in each flow booking, a leg value is determined (step 530). The legvalues for each leg in each flow booking are inserted into astratification table (step 540). Local bookings may also be insertedinto the stratification table. The stratification table is utilized togenerate remapped bookings for each leg of each flow booking, and theremapped flow bookings, together with the local bookings, are writteninto a forecast system history pool (step 550). The forecast systemhistory pool may be consulted and/or utilized by other components ofnetwork optimization system 115 and/or by external systems, for examplefor forecasting purposes.

In various embodiments, through use of AU to ENR module 145 and/ordemand class remapping module 147, airlines may implement revisions totheir booking strategies. In many instances, airlines may reallocatepricing associated with a particular seat on a particular flight leg.Stated differently, after assessing the improved estimated demandinformation provided and/or facilitated by network optimization system115, airlines may reprice certain seats that, while contributing togross revenue when booked, actually generate negative marginal revenue.Additional seats may thus be booked in a manner that ismarginal-revenue-positive for the airline.

Principles and features of the present disclosure may suitably becombined with principles of revenue management, for example as disclosedin U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/348,417 filed on Jan. 11, 2012now abandoned, and U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/352,667 now U.S.Pat. No. 8,600,787 entitled “Dynamic Cost Analysis and OverbookingOptimization Methods and Systems” which are incorporated herein byreference in their entirety.

Principles and features of the present disclosure may also suitably becombined with principles of reserve forecasting, for example asdisclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/793,049 entitled“Reserve Forecasting Systems and Methods” filed on Mar. 11, 2013, whichis incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.

Principles and features of the present disclosure may also suitably becombined with principles of operational reliability, for example asdisclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/966,723 entitled“Operational Reliability Systems and Methods” filed on Aug. 14, 2013,which is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.

Principles of the present disclosure may suitably be combined withprinciples of forecasting, demand modeling, and/or the like, for exampleas disclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/791,672 entitled“Demand Forecasting Systems and Methods Utilizing Unobscuring andUnconstraining” filed on Mar. 8, 2013, U.S. patent application Ser. No.13/791,691 entitled “Demand Forecasting Systems and Methods UtilizingFare Adjustment” filed on Mar. 8, 2013, and U.S. patent application Ser.No. 13/791,711 entitled “Demand Forecasting Systems and MethodsUtilizing Prime Class Remapping” filed on Mar. 8, 2013, each of whichare incorporated herein by reference in their entirety.

Principles and features of the present disclosure may also suitably becombined with principles of departure sequencing, for example asdisclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/833,761 entitled“Departure Sequencing Systems and Methods” filed on Mar. 15, 2013, whichis incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.

Principles and features of the present disclosure may also suitably becombined with principles of misconnect management, for example asdisclosed in U.S. patent application Ser. No. 13/837,462 entitled“Misconnect Management Systems and Methods” filed on Mar. 15, 2013,which is incorporated herein by reference in its entirety.

While the present disclosure may be described in terms of an airport, anaircraft, a pilot, and so forth, one skilled in the art can appreciatethat similar features and principles may be applied to othertransportation systems and vehicles such as, for example, buses, trains,ships, trucks, automobiles and/or the like.

While the exemplary embodiments described herein are described insufficient detail to enable those skilled in the art to practiceprinciples of the present disclosure, it should be understood that otherembodiments may be realized and that logical and/or functional changesmay be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the presentdisclosure. Thus, the detailed description herein is presented forpurposes of illustration and not of limitation.

For the sake of brevity, conventional data management, computernetworking, statistical assessment, software application development,and other aspects of exemplary systems and methods (and componentsthereof) may not be described in detail herein. Furthermore, theconnecting lines shown in the various figures contained herein areintended to represent functional relationships and/or physical orcommunicative couplings between the various elements. It should be notedthat many alternative or additional functional relationships or physicalconnections may be present in a practical forecasting system.

While the description references specific technologies, systemarchitectures and data management techniques, practitioners willappreciate that this description is of various embodiments, and thatother devices and/or methods may be implemented without departing fromthe scope of principles of the present disclosure. Similarly, while thedescription references a user interfacing with the system via a computeruser interface, practitioners will appreciate that other interfaces mayinclude mobile devices, kiosks and handheld devices such as mobilephones, smart phones, tablet computing devices, etc.

While the steps outlined herein represent exemplary embodiments ofprinciples of the present disclosure, practitioners will appreciate thatthere are any number of computing algorithms and user interfaces thatmay be applied to create similar results. The steps are presented forthe sake of explanation only and are not intended to limit the scope ofthe present disclosure in any way. Benefits, other advantages, andsolutions to problems have been described herein with regard to specificembodiments. However, the benefits, advantages, solutions to problems,and any element(s) that may cause any benefit, advantage, or solution tooccur or become more pronounced are not to be construed as critical,required, or essential features or elements of any or all of the claims.

Systems, methods and computer program products are provided. In thedetailed description herein, references to “various embodiments”, “oneembodiment”, “an embodiment”, “an example embodiment”, etc., indicatethat the embodiment described may include a particular feature,structure, or characteristic, but every embodiment may not necessarilyinclude the particular feature, structure, or characteristic. Moreover,such phrases are not necessarily referring to the same embodiment.Further, when a particular feature, structure, or characteristic isdescribed in connection with an embodiment, it is submitted that it iswithin the knowledge of one skilled in the art to effect such feature,structure, or characteristic in connection with other embodimentswhether or not explicitly described. After reading the description, itwill be apparent to one skilled in the relevant art(s) how to implementprinciples of the disclosure in alternative embodiments.

It should be understood that the detailed description and specificexamples, indicating exemplary embodiments, are given for purposes ofillustration only and not as limitations. Many changes and modificationsmay be made without departing from the spirit thereof, and principles ofthe present disclosure include all such modifications. Correspondingstructures, materials, acts, and equivalents of all elements areintended to include any structure, material, or acts for performing thefunctions in combination with other elements. Reference to an element inthe singular is not intended to mean “one and only one” unlessexplicitly so stated, but rather “one or more.” Moreover, when a phrasesimilar to “at least one of A, B, or C” or “at least one of A, B, and C”is used in the claims or the specification, the phrase is intended tomean any of the following: (1) at least one of A; (2) at least one of B;(3) at least one of C; (4) at least one of A and at least one of B; (5)at least one of B and at least one of C; (6) at least one of A and atleast one of C; or (7) at least one of A, at least one of B, and atleast one of C.

What is claimed is:
 1. A method comprising: generating, by a processor,an electronic ticket voucher having an authorization parameter and aflight leg booking based on a flight leg booking of a seat on a firstflight leg of an airline flight; closing, by the processor, theplurality of seats for the flight leg booking in the fare class for thefirst flight leg; determining, by the processor based on a set of classauthorization level (AU) values and for the fare class, a number of seatprotects to fit to a bid-price curve; determining, by the processor andfor the fare class, even-spaced quantiles based upon the number of seatprotects to fit in the fare class; generating, by the processor, a setof expected network revenue (ENR) values based on the even-spacedquantiles associated with a seat; remapping, by the processor and basedon a network value of the flight leg booking, the flight leg bookingfrom the fare class to a network value class corresponding to thenetwork value; iteratively updating, by the processor, the flight legbooking on the electronic ticket voucher based on at least one of theauthorization parameter, the network value, the closing the plurality ofseats for the flight leg booking in the fare class, the number of seatprotects or the remapped flight leg booking; and adjusting, by theprocessor and based on the iteratively updating and based on theauthorization parameter, a cost on the electronic ticket voucher toprovide a different voucher amount for the passenger on the airlineflights based on the latest conditions during the latest time period. 2.The method of claim 1, wherein the number of seat protects exceeds anumber of the even-spaced quantiles, and wherein at least two seatprotects are allocated to the even-spaced quantile corresponding to a0th percentile.
 3. The method of claim 1, wherein the number of seatprotects exceeds a number of even-spaced quantiles, and wherein thenumber of seat protects exceeding the number of even-spaced quantilesare all allocated to the even-spaced quantile corresponding to a 0thpercentile.
 4. The method of claim 1, wherein if the fare class is anactive class, a number of even-spaced quantiles is an achievable demandfor the active class.
 5. The method of claim 1, wherein if the fareclass is a non-active class, a number of even-spaced quantiles is apickup, wherein the pickup is equal to unconstrained demand lessunconstrained bookings.
 6. The method of claim 1, further comprisingupdating, responsive to the flight leg booking occurring in the fareclass, the number of seat protects to fit to the bid-price curve for thefare class.
 7. The method of claim 6, further comprising allocating, ifthe fare class is the active class, the flight leg booking to lowestpriced seat protect in the fare class.
 8. The method of claim 6, whereinan update of the number of seat protects is evenly distributed acrossthe fare class by the even-spaced quantile.
 9. The method of claim 1,further comprising determining, via a non-parametric empiricaldistribution estimation, a distribution of revenue for the fare class.10. The method of claim 1, further comprising: determining, by theprocessor, an impact of a denied boarding on a plurality of the airlineflights that are scheduled for departure during a time period; anditeratively updating, by the processor, the impact of the deniedboarding during predetermined intervals.
 11. The method of claim 1,further comprising creating, by the processor, the bid-price curve usingthe set of ENR values.
 12. The method of claim 1, further comprising:determining, by the processor, a change to the authorization parameterfor other passengers for the denied boarding for the airline flights;adjusting, by the processor and based on the determining of the changeto the authorization parameter, the authorization parameter on theelectronic ticket voucher, wherein an adjusted first authorizationparameter provides for a re-accommodation on an alternate accommodationflight among the airline flights in a same directional market for thepassenger, based on a plurality of forecasts for a cost of there-accommodation for each of a plurality of denied passengers for theflight and based on the change to the authorization parameter for theother passengers for the denied boarding for the airline flights; andadjusting, by the processor, the authorization parameter on theelectronic ticket voucher, wherein the adjusted first authorizationparameter provides access to hotel, meal and transportation (HMT)services due to a number of hours to an alternate accommodation flight,in response to denied boarding based on revising of booking strategiesand the closing the plurality of seats in the fare class.
 13. The methodof claim 1, further comprising, responsive to a notice from thereservation system that one of the number of seat protects has beenfilled via the flight leg booking, determining, by the processor and forthe fare class associated with the flight leg booking, an update of anumber of the even-spaced quantiles based upon a reduction of the numberof seat protects to fit in the fare class.
 14. The method of claim 1,further comprising improving, by the processor, network performance by:analyzing a value of the first flight leg in a passenger itinerary toobtain more accurate data by avoiding under-valuation and over-valuationof the seat booking; and separating enhanced demand forecasting from thefare class to reduce errors and reduce inaccurate data that slows downthe network performance.
 15. The method of claim 1, further comprising:identifying, by the processor, local bookings in the set of flight legbookings; identifying, by the processor, flow bookings in the set offlight leg bookings; determining, by the processor and for a leg in aflow booking, a leg value; inserting, by the processor, the leg value inthe flow booking into a stratification table; generating, by theprocessor and utilizing the stratification table, a remapped booking forthe leg of the flow booking; and writing, by the processor, the remappedbooking into a forecast system history pool.
 16. The method of claim 1,wherein the determining the network value of the flight leg bookingincludes utilizing an equation of the form:Legn value=(NR1/(NR1+NR2))*HP+Pricing, wherein NR1=a first displacementcost of the seat on the first flight leg; NR2=a second displacement costof the seat on a second flight leg subsequent to the first flight leg;HP=a hurdle point, i.e. the minimum acceptable amount needing to be paidfor the flight leg booking on the first flight leg in order to cover thefirst displacement cost; Pricing=ODF−HP; and ODF=an amount paid by thepassenger for the flight leg booking
 17. The method of claim 1, furthercomprising: opening, by the processor, a plurality of seats for theflight leg booking in the fare class for the first flight leg of theairline flight; providing, by the processor, the flight leg booking ofthe seat on the first flight leg from the plurality of seats; andreceiving, by the processor, a request for the flight leg booking of theseat on the first flight leg.
 18. The method of claim 1, furthercomprising determining, by the processor and in a set of flight legbookings, that the flight leg booking in the set of flight leg bookingsis a flow booking.
 19. A non-transitory computer-readable storage mediumhaving computer-executable instructions stored thereon that, in responseto execution by a processor, causes the processor to perform operationscomprising: generating, by the processor, an electronic ticket voucherhaving an authorization parameter and a flight leg booking based on aflight leg booking of a seat on a first flight leg of an airline flight;closing, by the processor, the plurality of seats for the flight legbooking in the fare class for the first flight leg; determining, by theprocessor based on a set of class authorization level (AU) values andfor the fare class, a number of seat protects to fit to a bid-pricecurve; determining, by the processor and for the fare class, even-spacedquantiles based upon the number of seat protects to fit in the fareclass; generating, by the processor, a set of expected network revenue(ENR) values based on the even-spaced quantiles associated with a seat;remapping, by the processor and based on a network value of the flightleg booking, the flight leg booking from the fare class to a networkvalue class corresponding to the network value; iteratively updating, bythe processor, the flight leg booking on the electronic ticket voucherbased on at least one of the authorization parameter, the network value,the closing the plurality of seats for the flight leg booking in thefare class, the number of seat protects or the remapped flight legbooking; and adjusting, by the processor and based on the iterativelyupdating and based on the authorization parameter, a cost on theelectronic ticket voucher to provide a different voucher amount for thepassenger on the airline flights based on the latest conditions duringthe latest time period.
 20. A system comprising: a processor; and atangible, non-transitory memory configured to communicate with theprocessor, the tangible, non-transitory memory having instructionsstored thereon that, in response to execution by the processor, causethe processor to perform operations comprising: generating, by theprocessor, an electronic ticket voucher having an authorizationparameter and a flight leg booking based on a flight leg booking of aseat on a first flight leg of an airline flight; closing, by theprocessor, the plurality of seats for the flight leg booking in the fareclass for the first flight leg; determining, by the processor based on aset of class authorization level (AU) values and for the fare class, anumber of seat protects to fit to a bid-price curve; determining, by theprocessor and for the fare class, even-spaced quantiles based upon thenumber of seat protects to fit in the fare class; generating, by theprocessor, a set of expected network revenue (ENR) values based on theeven-spaced quantiles associated with a seat; remapping, by theprocessor and based on a network value of the flight leg booking, theflight leg booking from the fare class to a network value classcorresponding to the network value; iteratively updating, by theprocessor, the flight leg booking on the electronic ticket voucher basedon at least one of the authorization parameter, the network value, theclosing the plurality of seats for the flight leg booking in the fareclass, the number of seat protects or the remapped flight leg booking;and adjusting, by the processor and based on the iteratively updatingand based on the authorization parameter, a cost on the electronicticket voucher to provide a different voucher amount for the passengeron the airline flights based on the latest conditions during the latesttime period.